Chicken Little, the sky is falling! By 2012 the Internet is going to have regular “brown outs” causing your computer to lock up. Chaos ensues as doctors can’t get receive critical patient data, stock trades are lost and grandparents the world over can’t receive pictures of the kids. The brown outs are predicted to begin some time next year.
You have been warned by Nemertes Research. These are the same ones who predicted the brown outs would occur in 2008. I can’t say that I remember any brown outs. Maybe I missed them prepping for the great Conficker massacre. As an aside, I’m still waiting for that.
This is yet another continuation of the Exaflood Myth. The Exaflood Myth states that internet growth is at or over 100% each year. Let me rephrase, internet traffic is doubling every year.
In 2008, the Minnesota Internet Traffic Studies program at the University of Minnesota did a comprehensive study and demonstrated that while wireless usage grew by 50% - 60%, its still a far cry from the 100% growth.
This myth is commonly sited by major carriers as a primary reason for wanting to change the common pricing scheme of having a monthly fee for bandwidth regardless of how much is actually used. Currently most ISP’s charge based on either the amount of time you’re online (for dial-up users) or your connection speed for those on a broadband connection. They would much prefer to not only charge you based on speed but also the amount that you use. With the massive amount of content out there, ISP’s want to cash in on the data that’s coming through their pipes to you. Just like having a water or gas meter on your house. Gentle reader, this is the politics of fear. According to Karl Bode at dslreports.com:
The term “exaflood,” created by the same PR tank that crafted the term “intelligent design,” is part of a sophisticated campaign aimed at convincing the press, public and lawmakers that without giving carriers what they want (less regulation, no net neutrality laws, no price controls, huge subsidies and tax credits, less consumer protection), the world will simply run out of bandwidth and we’ll all be weeping over our clogged tubes.
I implore all of you: Question everything. Just because you read it at a respected news source does not make it true. Do your own research. It took just 10 minutes of doing internet searches using the terms “Exaflood”, and “Nemartes Research” to start realizing there are serious holes in the report. The view from here is pretty skeptical.